Comments on: Year of the condo? http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/ Wed, 17 Mar 2010 04:14:01 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: jo http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/comment-page-1/#comment-2298 jo Wed, 14 Feb 2007 19:58:46 +0000 http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/#comment-2298 Population density means jack on it's own. I'm originally from Cleveland which has roughly the same density of Seattle...and you can pick up a house for 50k in Cleveland. Population density means jack on it’s own.

I’m originally from Cleveland which has roughly the same density of Seattle…and you can pick up a house for 50k in Cleveland.

]]> By: Chris http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/comment-page-1/#comment-2273 Chris Wed, 14 Feb 2007 01:43:08 +0000 http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/#comment-2273 Second thought. Find out what marketing firms work with the developers and learn their assumptions on demand. they may not be correct, but when you go to a bank/fund for 100 million in financing, you better have some good marketing studies to back it up Second thought. Find out what marketing firms work with the developers and learn their assumptions on demand. they may not be correct, but when you go to a bank/fund for 100 million in financing, you better have some good marketing studies to back it up

]]> By: Chris http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/comment-page-1/#comment-2272 Chris Wed, 14 Feb 2007 01:39:57 +0000 http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/#comment-2272 Population density of the city is not helpful, the metro area is more informative. LA and SF Bay have very dense metro areas because of land constraints, which helpls bolster prices. Even that only gets you so far. Run a OLS regression on that. Would be curious Keep in mind the numbers thrown out are for NEW construction of high-end downtown highrises. Not average across the city or region. The demand of high income individuals relative to supply is the stat you really want Bubble people. Take Seattle's market areafor high end condos - say Alaska to Oregon east to montana, and divide the number of people earning say $200k/year by the number of high-end condos in the market area. Use Fed Reserves Survey of Consumer finances to get the former. Bet you Seattle comes fares well. Population density of the city is not helpful, the metro area is more informative. LA and SF Bay have very dense metro areas because of land constraints, which helpls bolster prices. Even that only gets you so far. Run a OLS regression on that. Would be curious

Keep in mind the numbers thrown out are for NEW construction of high-end downtown highrises. Not average across the city or region. The demand of high income individuals relative to supply is the stat you really want Bubble people. Take Seattle’s market areafor high end condos – say Alaska to Oregon east to montana, and divide the number of people earning say $200k/year by the number of high-end condos in the market area. Use Fed Reserves Survey of Consumer finances to get the former. Bet you Seattle comes fares well.

]]> By: Ben http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/comment-page-1/#comment-2268 Ben Tue, 13 Feb 2007 22:33:56 +0000 http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/#comment-2268 The comparison to population densities to major cities is somewhat irrelevant as those are cities with multi-million people population to tiny Seattle. More useful would be to also integrate housing unit supply among other factors. Nonetheless, I'm skeptical about the demand and available buyer pool for the number of higher priced units under construction. Besides Seattle, Bellevue is building upwards of 1000 million-dollar plus units. The comparison to population densities to major cities is somewhat irrelevant as those are cities with multi-million people population to tiny Seattle. More useful would be to also integrate housing unit supply among other factors. Nonetheless, I’m skeptical about the demand and available buyer pool for the number of higher priced units under construction. Besides Seattle, Bellevue is building upwards of 1000 million-dollar plus units.

]]> By: The Tim http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/comment-page-1/#comment-2265 The Tim Tue, 13 Feb 2007 21:36:16 +0000 http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/#comment-2265 This discussion inspired me to do a more detailed comparison of population, land area, and density for these cities and a few more. You can see my full findings <a href="http://seattlebubble.blogspot.com/2007/02/what-cities-does-seattle-compare-to.html" rel="nofollow">in this post</a>. This discussion inspired me to do a more detailed comparison of population, land area, and density for these cities and a few more. You can see my full findings in this post.

]]> By: brain http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/comment-page-1/#comment-2263 brain Tue, 13 Feb 2007 20:48:31 +0000 http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/#comment-2263 Land Areas of the cities above (all in km2): NYC 785 Hong Kong 1,104 San Francisco 121 Tokyo 2,187 Vancouver, BC 114 Chicago 588 Boston 125 London 1,579 Philadelphia 350 Los Angeles, CA 1,215 Seattle 217 Detroit 359 Cleveland 201 Milwaukee 249 San Jose 453 Sacramento 252 Las Vegas 293 Portland 377 Houston 1,558 Phoenix 1,231 Suddenly these places aren't ranked in the same order. And it is amazing to realize how small NYC is compared to some major international cities. Land Areas of the cities above (all in km2):

NYC 785
Hong Kong 1,104
San Francisco 121
Tokyo 2,187
Vancouver, BC 114

Chicago 588
Boston 125
London 1,579
Philadelphia 350
Los Angeles, CA 1,215

Seattle 217
Detroit 359
Cleveland 201
Milwaukee 249
San Jose 453

Sacramento 252
Las Vegas 293
Portland 377
Houston 1,558
Phoenix 1,231

Suddenly these places aren’t ranked in the same order. And it is amazing to realize how small NYC is compared to some major international cities.

]]> By: brain http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/comment-page-1/#comment-2262 brain Tue, 13 Feb 2007 20:32:13 +0000 http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/#comment-2262 Ummm, these stats would be more useful if someone could post the ratio of people to km2, or 1 person per _____ km2. I can walk across the Boston zip codes in 30 minutes if I get walk signs at all the traffic lights. It would take me all freaking day to walk from South Park to Shoreline. Ummm, these stats would be more useful if someone could post the ratio of people to km2, or 1 person per _____ km2.

I can walk across the Boston zip codes in 30 minutes if I get walk signs at all the traffic lights. It would take me all freaking day to walk from South Park to Shoreline.

]]> By: The Tim http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/comment-page-1/#comment-2258 The Tim Tue, 13 Feb 2007 17:21:43 +0000 http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/#comment-2258 That’s people per kmē, by the way.

]]> By: The Tim http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/comment-page-1/#comment-2257 The Tim Tue, 13 Feb 2007 17:19:46 +0000 http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/#comment-2257 Population Densities of a few cities: New York, NY 10,316 Hong Kong 6,295 San Francisco, CA 6,111 Tokyo 5,796 Vancouver, BC 5,252 Chicago, IL 4,867 Boston, MA 4,457 London 4,761 Philadelphia, PA 4,202 Los Angeles, CA 3,165 Seattle, WA 2,665 Detroit, MI 2,647 Cleveland, OH 2,381 Milwaukee, WI 2,400 San Jose, CA 2,014 Sacramento, CA 1,617 Las Vegas, NV 1,604 Portland, OR 1,533 Houston, TX 1,344 Phoenix, AZ 1,188 Population Densities of a few cities:

New York, NY 10,316
Hong Kong 6,295
San Francisco, CA 6,111
Tokyo 5,796
Vancouver, BC 5,252

Chicago, IL 4,867
Boston, MA 4,457
London 4,761
Philadelphia, PA 4,202
Los Angeles, CA 3,165

Seattle, WA 2,665
Detroit, MI 2,647
Cleveland, OH 2,381
Milwaukee, WI 2,400
San Jose, CA 2,014

Sacramento, CA 1,617
Las Vegas, NV 1,604
Portland, OR 1,533
Houston, TX 1,344
Phoenix, AZ 1,188

]]> By: Bob http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/comment-page-1/#comment-2255 Bob Tue, 13 Feb 2007 16:22:03 +0000 http://www.urbnlivn.com/2007/02/11/year-of-the-condo/#comment-2255 I know Seattle isn't as crowded as the other cities. But I am only looking at the prices and what people are willing to pay until they say, no way. There has to be middle class in those cities and they are using more of their paychecks to cover their mortgages. I know Seattle isn’t as crowded as the other cities. But I am only looking at the prices and what people are willing to pay until they say, no way. There has to be middle class in those cities and they are using more of their paychecks to cover their mortgages.

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