As I went to plug the meter just now (I usually don’t drive to work but did today because I thought I had a flight to catch) I noticed a sign going up for 6 lofts at 121 Jackson.
Prices range from $425,000 for a 646 square foot studio to $1.2 mil for 1776 square feet. Interestingly 5 of the 6 units have showers instead of tubs and they all have their own roof top decks.
If you’re interested their site says that their grand opening is this Saturday and Sunday from noon to 5pm.
Oddly they have more photos of the unit in the MLS than they do on their own site. And oddly their photos in the MLS don’t look very professional.
Search Redfin for 121 S Jackson.
Bonus link: Price risk for the top 50 U.S. markets. Seattle with the greatest amount of appreciation last year is actually at low risk for a decline.
Popularity: 13% [?]
36 responses so far ↓
1 Peckham // Jul 20, 2007 at 7:17 pm
“Seattle with the greatest amount of appreciation last year is actually at low risk for a decline.
LOL! You need reading lessons. The chart shows Seattle-Bellevue-Everett. If you’ve been following the market, Snohomish county is seeing declines. Also note that Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton is ranked just above Seattle-Bellevue-Everett and Portland is reporting bloated inventory and declining prices.
2 Matthew // Jul 20, 2007 at 7:33 pm
Doesn’t look like low risk to me, looks pretty much in the dead center of the chart.
3 Matt // Jul 20, 2007 at 7:47 pm
Peckham, I should have added a exclamation mark to the end of that bonus link sentence and a smiley face.
Matthew, well the cities less risky than Seattle aren’t exactly the west coast hot spot that Seattle is :P.
4 Matthew // Jul 21, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Matt,
True enough, but the majority of the cities ahead of us on the chart are located primarily in California and Florida. I will agree that those areas have the highest chance for a correction, but I disagree that the chart says that Seattle is “low risk”. It puts us at 25th riskiest city (in a list of 50) and if you take California and Florida out of the equation (which are so extremely bubbly there really is no comparison to anywhere else in the US), we are the 10th riskiest. I’d say that puts us pretty much middle of the road.
Not as much of a risk as Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Fran, LA, Boston, DC, Tampa, etc., yes, I agree. Low risk? Disagree. Low risk according to that chart is Pittsburgh, Dallas, Indianapolis, Houston, etc.
5 Matthew // Jul 21, 2007 at 12:29 pm
And I totally disagree that Seattle being a “west coast hot spot” will have any bearing on whether or not it suffers a correction (SEE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA).
6 David // Jul 26, 2007 at 4:54 pm
You guys are missing the point. Seattle topped the whole list this past year with the highest appreciation in the country. Therefore, it is significant that Seattle is located more towards the middle of this riskiness list than the very top, where it would be expected to be with its high appreciation.
7 Greg // Feb 28, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Seattle is still a strong market. Condos for the past five years have outpaced homes in appreciation. Our local Economy is a bit different than other cities in the US. Having sold real estate and exclusively condos for 25 years, they are a solid investment if you purchase them correctly. Over supply, lower consumer confidence,continual negative national press on the housing market and the mortgage meltdown has slowed sales in the Seattle area. This is a good thing. There needed to be a slow down to ever escalating prices. But now buyers are in a market where they can control their outcome. Where as 9 months ago it was a sellers market. Part of which was driven by speculaters, investors trying to flip units.They are GONE. So for now investigate, know the buyer bonuses/inncetives at each project, find out current closed sales in a condo complex and make an offer w/in 10% of the asking price. The key is not to be attached to the building or the results. There are very good deals and good investments out in our Seattle marketplace. 20% appreciation a year is not a realistic number. But with all the sprawl of residential housing, increased traffic issues, in city condominiums will continue to be a strong investment. Thanks and good luck. PS wheres the spell check
8 EconE // Feb 29, 2008 at 12:02 pm
“Seattle is still a strong market”
that’s not what the numbers show.
“Condos for the past five years have outpaced homes in appreciation”
well duh…in the next 5 years they’ll outpace homes in depreciation.
“Our local Economy is a bit different than other cities in the US”
meaningless drivel.
“Having sold real estate and exclusively condos for 25 years, they are a solid investment if you purchase them correctly”
appeal to authority? How do you purchase “correctly”? Oh…yeah…wait for the bust part of the cycle and buy from a BANK with a lowball bid.
“Over supply, lower consumer confidence,continual negative national press on the housing market and the mortgage meltdown has slowed sales in the Seattle area”
Check, check, check and check. And as Secretary Paulson has recently said…”THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING”.
“This is a good thing”
lemonade out of lemons.
“There needed to be a slow down to ever escalating prices”
oh please.
“But now buyers are in a market where they can control their outcome”
We sure are. We are all renting for less than half the cost of owning. Then next two years are just too uncertain to make the largest purchase of ones life.
“Where as 9 months ago it was a sellers market.”
I’d prefer to call it a “suckers” market
“Part of which was driven by speculaters, investors trying to flip units.They are GONE”
Bullsh** they’re not gone. Look at all the units at Parc, Mosler, 2200, Cosmopolitan etc etc for rent and sale by speculators and flippers. They’re not gone yet by a long shot.
“So for now investigate”
I have…thanks!
“find out current closed sales in a condo complex and make an offer w/in 10% of the asking price”
of course we wouldn’t want to *offend* the seller with anything less than that. pshaw.
“The key is not to be attached to the building or the results”
Huh? What is that supposed to mean?
“There are very good deals and good investments out in our Seattle marketplace”
Yes there are…just not in Real Estate IMHO.
“20% appreciation a year is not a realistic number”
Exactly! 20% depreciation isn’t a realistic number either but I’ll bet that ‘preciation is gonna start with a “d” rather than an “a”. Time will tell…I’m waiting to see what happens with the ARM resets over the next few years. (Alt-A and Prime…not subprime)
“But with all the sprawl of residential housing, increased traffic issues, in city condominiums will continue to be a strong investment”
*If people all of the sudden decide that they would rather live in a condo than a SFR. It’s all a tradeoff.
9 Matthew // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:07 pm
EconE,
The Option-ARM resets that are coming (I imagine there is a large percentage of these in the condo market) are nuclear explosions on the horizon.
10 jo // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:27 pm
did
anyone
bother
to
read
all
that
?
11 CG // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:52 pm
EconE’s incisive parsing of Greg’s blatherings should be mandatory reading for the Times’s Elizabeth Rhodes and the PI’s Aubrey Cohen. This is the kind of discussion and analysis we need to engage in much more often. (Jo’s pithy negativism, which he resorts to a lot on this blog, seems to be evidence that it isn’t easy to face up to reality.)
12 Joel // Feb 29, 2008 at 4:05 pm
>>“There are very good deals and good investments out in our Seattle marketplace”
>”Yes there are…just not in Real Estate IMHO.”
Like my Amazon.com puts today?
13 Eric K // Feb 29, 2008 at 4:17 pm
The good news for anyone looking to buy a new downtown condo in 2-3 years is that a lot of developers think they can build through the recession.
AVA has almost finished their showroom (in the old Cosmo penthouse space no less), and there are three 40+ story double-tower buildings in design review.
14 Chris // Mar 1, 2008 at 10:50 am
Eric, sadly, the construction lending faucet has turned off. Each of those projects requires a 100M+ construction loan, so they are done until presales hits 50-60%. We’ll be waiting a loooong time before 50-60% of a collective 1000+ units presell at recent absorption rates.
Speaking of alternattive investments - how about alt energy? Below is link to a MUST READ on why alt energy will be the next bubble. IMHO, if you want to throw 20$ around on a spec investment, there a are much better ways than having it is in a developers escrow account while we wait to see ho wthe market sorts out for two years.
http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908
PBW is a good fund. PHO is a water resources fund I’m high on. Makers of equipment like ZOLT (for wind) will also pop this next cycle. IMHO, wait to invest until second half of this year when the markets in really bad shape, b/c these won’t go up when the market goes down and there’s a flight to quality (eg companies making money now). Speculation will drive these types of securities way up in 2009 and 1010
Joel, why the Amazon puts? I like online retailing moving forward as trans costs go up.
15 Greg // Mar 3, 2008 at 10:41 pm
Econ-E
“Seattle is still a strong market”
that’s not what the numbers show.
Not for you, read some national papers. Look outside of Seattle. Get on the Washington State Real Estate Research, there are numerous articles and research that shows that we one of the least “hit
cities in the nation
“Condos for the past five years have outpaced homes in appreciation”
well duh…in the next 5 years they’ll outpace homes in depreciation.
Wrong again. Sorry Econ, while your still sitting around bitching in 5 years half the readers will have bought another property and the slump in the market will again become a seller market. It took 18 months after 1989/1990. Same thing again will happen.
“Our local Economy is a bit different than other cities in the US”
meaningless drivel.
To you I wouldnt expect anything different. Why dont you leave Seattle and move to New mexico. Great deals, great mexican food.
“Having sold real estate and exclusively condos for 25 years, they are a solid investment if you purchase them correctly”
appeal to authority? How do you purchase “correctly”? Oh…yeah…wait for the bust part of the cycle and buy from a BANK with a lowball bid.
You could you seem to know what to do, in the next 6 to 9 months we will be out of this down turn whether you like it or not.
“Over supply, lower consumer confidence,continual negative national press on the housing market and the mortgage meltdown has slowed sales in the Seattle area”
Check, check, check and check. And as Secretary Paulson has recently said…”THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING”.
Bury your head in the sand. “THE SKY IS FALLING CHICKEN LITTLE”
“This is a good thing”
lemonade out of lemons.
Talking w/you is like trying to make chicken soup with chicken sh**
“There needed to be a slow down to ever escalating prices”
oh please.
No need to comment
“But now buyers are in a market where they can control their outcome”
We sure are. We are all renting for less than half the cost of owning. Then next two years are just too uncertain to make the largest purchase of ones life.
Yeah a life long renter. Go figure. Look for a reason or two not to buy. Are you saving the difference of the money your saving from rent?? Please enlighten me further.
“Where as 9 months ago it was a sellers market.”
I’d prefer to call it a “suckers” market
Yeah which means that a good time to purchase is now, not prior to 9 months. Prices were too high and they rose too quickly.
“Part of which was driven by speculaters, investors trying to flip units.They are GONE”
Bullsh** they’re not gone. Look at all the units at Parc, Mosler, 2200, Cosmopolitan etc etc for rent and sale by speculators and flippers. They’re not gone yet by a long shot.
Hate to blow your theory again. Parc, 2200, and the Cosmopolitan all had investors that bought in the early pre-sale phase 18 to 24 months ago. Many of them who bought tried to sell all at once. So you are right, they are not gone, but certaining not buying more pre-sales, they can’t sell the ones they bought.
“So for now investigate”
I have…thanks!
“find out current closed sales in a condo complex and make an offer w/in 10% of the asking price”
of course we wouldn’t want to *offend* the seller with anything less than that. pshaw.
You could do what ever you want. A minimum of 10%, a full year of homeowners dues free, etc. If you want a deal the time is now. That is a baseline. Your still renting right? Why dont you take your anger and go take it out on a seller of two and negoiate yourself a real deal on a condo.
“The key is not to be attached to the building or the results”
Huh? What is that supposed to mean?
It means you make an offer based on whatever you think the property is worth to you. If it is a 20% discount, then make an offer on it and dont give a darn if it works or not. Just move on to the next offer if it is not accepted. Its up your alley.
“There are very good deals and good investments out in our Seattle marketplace”
Yes there are…just not in Real Estate IMHO.
Pray tell explain to all what you invest in “the bond market”?
“20% appreciation a year is not a realistic number”
Exactly! 20% depreciation isn’t a realistic number either but I’ll bet that ‘preciation is gonna start with a “d” rather than an “a”. Time will tell…I’m waiting to see what happens with the ARM resets over the next few years. (Alt-A and Prime…not subprime)
King County is seeing 65% less foreclosures than other cities. Keep waiting.
“But with all the sprawl of residential housing, increased traffic issues, in city condominiums will continue to be a strong investment”
*If people all of the sudden decide that they would rather live in a condo than a SFR. It’s all a tradeoff.
People buy a condo for entirely different reason in the city than a single family home. Like lifestyle, convenience, less travel time to work, retail amenities. Nice try though. Love to hear more of your thoughts.
16 Peckham // Mar 4, 2008 at 8:27 am
“Why dont you leave Seattle and move to New mexico. Great deals, great mexican food.”
This sentence shows you know little about New Mexico, probably less than you know about real estate.
17 Matthew // Mar 4, 2008 at 10:55 am
Greg,
Your comments look very familiar to every other RE shill in every declining metro area PRIOR to declining housing prices.
But let me guess, Seattle is special! Lax lending, increased pressure on high appraisals, specuvestors, kinky mortgages, etc, don’t apply to Seattle because we have pink ponies and gumpdrops raining from the sky!
WE ARE SPECIAL!
18 Greg // Mar 4, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Matthew
I do appreciate your comments on the basis that they are civil. I dont ask that you or anyone else on this blog believe me. I have marketed, sold 200 plus condonminium projects in the Inner city of Seattle. I started my career over 25 years ago and have been thru numerous cycles of the market. Im not trying to convince you or anyone else of this marketplace it is uniquely uncertain. But history does bare out trends, cycles and I have been thru three of them when gloom and doom was all the buzz. I think what I have learned, lived, and the knowledge based on actually working in the field has some value.
Greg,
Your comments look very familiar to every other RE shill in every declining metro area PRIOR to declining housing prices.
But let me guess, Seattle is special! Lax lending, increased pressure on high appraisals, specuvestors, kinky mortgages, etc, don’t apply to Seattle because we have pink ponies and gumpdrops raining from the sky!
No that is not what I said. I said that type oflending which I despised and would not offer at our properties was something I spoke to buyers and the sellers I worked with a year ago. The signs of trouble were apparent a year to 18 months ago. Realtors build their relationship by actually offering a service. In many cases the service is crap. The best thing in our market now and the turn down nationally is that 40% of the part time realtors will go away in 6 months. They dont undrstand the market, solid loan programs for thier clients and are only looking to make a buck to keep from dropping out of the business.
If you honestly feel like I portray this market as gumdrops and pink ponies your missing the paoint. I know this is a slow time in the market. Sellers are hurting. There are opportunities to be had. It is like buying best of brand stock. The market drops and at some point the value and earnings dont really reflect the value of the stock itself. But it inflation, oil prices, Bush, etc. But that doesnt mean that the stock is still haspotneital upside in the next year to 18 months. It is all a gamble.
But as for the lax lending, according to what I have read from the government, we are seeing foreclosures at 70% less than California, Flordia, Arizona.
This is an exchange of ideas. Not a dictatorship. I dont have a crystal ball, but just a lot of years in this specific business. And it gets me nothing out of it by stating my viewpoint. Im not asking for business, but hope I could offer some insight insteand of receiving scarasm, by some of you. If I offened any of you Except Econ-E then I will leave and go elsewhere.
Yep your very special, I kind of feel that most prople are if given an opportunity.
WE ARE SPECIAL!
19 Matthew // Mar 4, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Greg,
Comparing us to Florida, Arizona, and most of California is like saying an Atomic bomb is not very destructive when compared to a hydrogen bomb. Yes a hydrogen bomb is more destructive, but the a-bomb can still do some damage.
20 Matthew // Mar 4, 2008 at 6:03 pm
And one of my favorite quotes of all time
“Remember you are unique…. just like everybody else!”
21 EconE // Mar 4, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Not offended at all. Amused actually. Thanks for asking though. However…for Mr. Goyers sake…let’s make a deal.
If you refrain from randomly posting your “now’s the time to make a deal!!!” statements, I promise I won’t randomly post and discuss all the foreclosures and preforeclosures here.
This way, we can get back to just talking about condos in general…you know…like where Matt posts a condo and we talk about what we like or don’t like about it (floorplan, materials, whatever)…without receiving a sales pitch.
22 eric // Mar 6, 2008 at 12:44 pm
If your looking to buy a house/condo to live in, then all you need to know about a market is what’s the differential between the cost to rent and the cost to buy. If the cost differential is minimal, then it makes sense to buy. For sale housing prices are relatively flat right now, but rents are increasing on average 10% annually in Seattle, due to a reduction in rental housing stock for the first time since data started being collected on such things. Purchasing will remain a reasonable option until such time as the population stops growing. As long as this area is creating new jobs faster than its creating new housing prices will remain stable or increase.
23 EconE // Mar 6, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Attention renters…if your mean and greedy landlord tries to raise your rent. Threaten to walk and negotiate with another “floplord” aka failed flipper. Have a number of potential units lined up that you want to “bounce” into.
Most likely they will realize that their condo will stay on the market for a looooong time when ask for too much (kind of like a certain mosler unit) and when a unit is empty that means $0 for the LL. Plus, there is also a cost to advertise and another potential cost to move a new tenant into the building.
24 Peckhammer // Mar 6, 2008 at 3:40 pm
“…but rents are increasing on average 10% annually in Seattle, due to a reduction in rental housing stock for the first time since data started being collected on such things. Purchasing will remain a reasonable option until such time as the population stops growing.”
Or unless the rental unit supply grows. And it will. It is already trending that way with new projects under way, with additional help from repartmenting and failed condo projects like Domaine.
25 Chris // Mar 6, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Eric,
“As long as this area is creating new jobs faster than its creating new housing prices will remain stable or increase.” I don’t know if this was ever the case - we’ve built and converted a ton of units in Seattle region over the past 5 years. Like everywhere else, the spike in prices was driven by lose credit. We’re late to the dance, but we’re doing the jig now. we need 3-4 more years of 10% rents and stable prices to bring the rent-buy back to equilibrium. I thin the two will meet in the middle - housing down 15-20% nominally by 2010 and rents up about the same.
26 jo // Mar 7, 2008 at 2:55 pm
I love the bitter renters.
RE downtown affects everyone, no matter if you’re a renter or not. Last time I noticed the stock market, job growth, and currency exchange rates weren’t different for renters. :)
Take a look at your 401k and what it’s done the last few months. While you may not have bought a property, you’re nonetheless directly affected as part of the RE downturn. Sad to say, you’re paying (literally) for their losses right now.
I’m sure the investors thank you for your help.
27 Peckhammer // Mar 7, 2008 at 4:19 pm
“Take a look at your 401k and what it’s done the last few months. While you may not have bought a property, you’re nonetheless directly affected as part of the RE downturn.
The key difference is that you can move money from stocks or mutual funds within your 401K to a prime money market fund and you don’t have to live in a truck camper in the Fred Meyer parking lot.
28 Bob // Mar 7, 2008 at 7:30 pm
jo, have you heard of shorting? Some people also don’t have all of their assets in US dollar. There are many ways to get ahead. When everyone is crashing through the floor, you don’t even have to do much to move up the food chain.
29 Affluent Bitter Renter // Mar 8, 2008 at 11:02 am
The key is that the 401K isn’t leveraged - if stocks go down 15%, I still still have 85% of my investment. If real estate goes down 15%, most recent house purchasers are wiped out - they owe more than the house is worth. My investments have gone down some, but I’m doing a lot better than if I had bought a downtown condo recently.
30 Matthew // Mar 9, 2008 at 10:10 am
Funny, I moved my retirement to government securities and everything in my ThinkorSwim broker account is on the short side… Funny thing is I am up over 45% so far this year…
31 JNS // Mar 16, 2008 at 4:16 pm
All this back and forth, and the fact does not change that I bought into the downtown condo market in 2003, and have stayed in the downtown area because I like it. Oh, by the way, I am up almost 250K on my purchase from 2003. Not a bad return for a lifestyle I truly enjoy. Hate to think where I would be if I had decided to rent back then, instead of buy.
32 EconE // Mar 17, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Oh, by the way, I am up almost 250K on my purchase from 2003
You’re not “up” anything until you sell.
Thank you…come again!
33 JNS // Mar 18, 2008 at 6:09 am
I just did sell, put the money in the bank, and am buying a new place for CASH. Maybe I will buy two new places and someone on this blog would like to make the payments for me on the second one?
34 Matthew // Mar 18, 2008 at 6:06 pm
JNS,
You should buy two units, that way you can lose twice as much!
Have fun trying to rent those badboys out at a break even point. I’m calling bullshit on your “sale” of your condo for 250k that you supposedly banked. Post a MLS # for us to view.
35 jo // Mar 18, 2008 at 8:51 pm
I’m sure he’ll provide us with the MLS# when you guys provide us with your sources :P
36 Matt // Mar 18, 2008 at 10:18 pm
I’m not a fan of MLS # witch hunts. Next thing you know you’ll be digging up his loan docs from the county to see how much he actually cleared on it. This is not the Irvine housing blog and I found it amusing but slightly disturbing when the Seattle Bubble Forums decided to take a look at my own finances. So please, let’s refrain from this here.
Thanks!
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