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It’s Been a Bad Month

October 18th, 2008 · View Comments · By Matt

Redfin, Zillow, Pb Elemental have all announced layoffs this week.

I hear others like Weber Thompson have also been letting go staff.

This does definitely not bode well for our local condo economy. Who else has been affected that we haven’t heard from?

Sad to say, it’s definitely time for an Urbnlivn meetup, we’re at least a year over due. So I’ve got one in the works; we can drink away our sorrows and the bubblers can rejoice. You in?

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  • The problem, however, is a global economic meltdown. So, this is well out of the reach of any one man or administration fixing. Believe it or not, the TRUE economy is much worse than what even we see today. The current administration is doing its best to "keep it together" until after the elections are finished, meaning we are currently experiencing an artificially BETTER economy than what it actually is.
  • Mark W
    An add on to my above note - In Saturday's Times' New Homes Saturday ad section was a "Dwell on This" column by Sam Anderson, the executive officer of the local Master Builders Association, offering "insight into the housing market." He wrote, "No one is naive enough to think that the economy will bounce back quickly, but some signs of recovery are already here. Nationally, sales of single-family homes increased by 2.7% in September, up from August sales."

    Obviously he didn't anticipate Friday's surge in unemployment from 6.1 to 6.5% when he wrote that, but taking a single data point from September to argue that signs of recovery are present is ridiculous. In addition he ignored other real estate data points re September sales (new home sales were down 33% from 9/07, and median price of those homes was down 9% yoy - see Sunday's Times), and of course that market bloodbath in October that wiped out a couple trillion in wealth.

    I'll take honest pessimism over false optimism.
  • jo
    ration-l: it's just the time of year here in Seattle when everyone gets moody
  • Mark W
    If the remarks were absurdly bleak, sure, lay off that speculation. But when the economy is going into a recession and local businesses are cutting jobs, it is a reasonable topic to discuss in the context of what that may mean for the local condo market.

    When realtors advertise that it's a great time to buy when prices are declining, knowing what's going on helps a buyer better assess how true that may be for the buyer. If local conditions suggest that prices may drop further, it's only a great time to buy for the realtor. The buyer won't get a refund on the commission if the value of the unit drops 10% after the sale.

    It impacts when we might see the next new groundbreaking, determine the next condo-to-apt shift, etc.

    Accurate news, even if it's bad news, helps people make informed choices.
  • Ration-L
    In addition to MD's comments: many people are speculating that consumer psyche will drive the markets even further down than they naturally would without that factor. Maybe we should all lay off the pessimism a little bit, let the market do it's thing, and not contribute to making things worse than they already are.
  • AV
    Mithun laid off 20 people back in June, did a firm-wide 10% reduction in hours & pay over the summer, laid off another 20 people about 2 weeks ago and made the pay cut permanent for all principles. These layoffs were a range of junior & mid level architects, PMs and even a couple principles. Ouch!!
  • jon
    It's been a while for a meetup... I am in.
  • DesignGuy
    Matt: don't know about architect boom:bust cycles in the past, but this is not fun. I wish you and Redfin the best ... this economy SUCKS!

    jcricket: not sure where you get your information from, but I work at Weber Thompson and the layoff was 18 junior staff members - less than 24%. Not to diminish it ... you cannot imagine how sad it is to lose good people that are not just friends, they are family. Actually, maybe you can because you are going through it too, just like the rest of us. It's funny how these rumors proliferate ... the first rumors about our friends at PB Elemental were that they had cut 50 people and that only the principals remained. Sounds like they lost only about 18 as well, but that is still very painful for the individuals cut, and for everyone that remains. It sounds like any design, development, real estate firm in town that is focused on housing in seeing similar cut-backs.

    We should all get together for one big freaking kegger at WT!
  • jcricket
    I just heard that Weber Thompson's layoffs have been almost 50% of the company, and there were layoffs as recently as last week.

    Ugly.
  • nunya
    "MD" I agree 110%
  • The MD
    Yeah, I would definitely call that a bad month. Unfortunately, though, it is going to get even worse. A lot of people are speculating the election (contingent Obama wins) will bring with it a new economy and everything will fix itself in a relatively short time. The problem, however, is a global economic meltdown. So, this is well out of the reach of any one man or administration fixing. Believe it or not, the TRUE economy is much worse than what even we see today. The current administration is doing its best to "keep it together" until after the elections are finished, meaning we are currently experiencing an artificially BETTER economy than what it actually is. So, my prediction is that after the new year begins, we are going to witness even more layoffs across the board with a significant reduction in home values following a few months later. This isn't a "hick up" as most real estate agents would want prospective buyers to think. Its going to take a few years to recover.
  • @Ace: I can see it from my place. They are making progress on it. Though maybe they'll go apartments first.

    @The Architects: I'm sorry to hear how widespread it the layoffs are. What's your boom bust cycle like? When was the last time there were numerous layoffs etc?
  • Ace
    Any updates on 1111 East Pike? I noticed the other night that the sign was gone, and the site looks like it has been mothballed.
  • jcricket
    One more thing (regarding Lev Lev's comment about open positions) - having been through the dot-com bust and applied for a zillion jobs - many of the open positions on web sites are simply resume bait. Companies either want to stockpile resumes, or don't want to appear like they're in a hiring freeze, so they keep positions "nominally open".

    I liken it to how Oriental rug places are always "going out of business soon".
  • jcricket
    I'm not a bubbler (nor a booster), but I'm definitely not celebrating any lost jobs or economic downturn.

    If nothing else, selfishly, it's that much harder for me to "get ahead" when I'm competing against 1000s of laid off people with similar experience to my own. And those are people that won't be buying the stuff I sell (metaphorically), going to restaurants, etc.

    And less selfishly, I just hate the idea of people forced into the job market at the worst macro-economic moment. I can only hope they don't have two condos they need to cover the costs for ;-)

    CG - sorry to hear about your troubles. Being laid off sucks ass. I never would have guessed massive law firms, our biggest bank and Starbucks would be first to lay off in this economy. Despite not being a "doom and gloomer", I'm definitely feeling we're nowhere near bottom, and the worst is yet to come for many employees.
  • CG
    The law firm where I work, with an impressive legacy of 118 years and with 700 attorneys in 14 offices on 3 continents, has announced its firmwide dissolution. Ouch. So, if EconE will pay for my drinks, I'm in for the Meetup.
  • Lev Lev
    LMN, DLR Group, Mithun, even some of the smaller firms... but if you look at the AIA website lots of firms have hiring ads, too..
  • Mike
    Mulvanny G2 also has had multiple rounds of layoffs. It isn't just the large firms either, a lot of the small firms are joining the club (something I found out the hard way). It has been weeks since any architecture jobs hit the boards.
  • Hey, I take exception to the "bubblers can rejoice" line. Nobody is rejoicing at lost jobs.
  • Ellen
    It's seems like everyone but NBBJ has been laying people off from what I've heard. Even Callison--with the loss of Wamu--had to let people go.
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