urbnlivn, a seattle condo & real estate blog

Condo Market in June: Prices Down, Sales Really Down

July 15th, 2010 by Matt · 4 Comments · Market Report

Yesterday Redfin released new data on the Seattle Area market showing that for the city of Seattle condo prices decreased 2.7% in June to $287,000, and were down 1.4% year over year. Sales volume decreased 18.2% to 207 sales from May to June, and decreased 21.9% year over year (there were 234 condos sold June 2009).

Inventory Up 4.5% Month over Month

In June the number of condos for sale in Seattle increased 4.5% to 1,661 from 1,590 in May, inventory is down 1.0% year over year.

Here’s the number of condos for sale in June by neighborhood.

# For Sale June ’10 Mo/Mo Change # For Sale June ’09 Yr/Yr Change
Ballard 78 11.4% 87 -10.3%
Belltown 199 5.9% 207 -3.9%
Capitol Hill 202 12.8% 201 0.5%
Central District 50 8.7% 24 108.3%
Downtown 476 4.8% 512 -7.0%
Fremont 28 -6.7 28 0.0%
Queen Anne 214 2.9% 190 2.9%
South Lake Union 28 -3.4% 22 27.3%
West Seattle 160 1.9% 162 -1.2%

 
 
Sales Volume Down 18.2% Month over Month

Now that the federal tax credit is no longer available it isn’t surprising to see sales volume drop so much. I expect that sales will be flat to slightly down in July. I don’t think we’ll see such a big drop off for another month in a row.

Here’s the # of condos bought in June 2010 by neighborhood. Instead of showing the month over month increase which is skewed by the number of weekdays in a month we’re showing the weekday rate of change for a better comparison in sales volume:

# Sold June ’10 Mo/Mo Weekday Rate Change # Sold June ’09 Yr/Yr Change
Ballard 10 -36.4% 18 -44.4%
Belltown 29 -20.9% 23 26.1%
Capitol Hill 25 -14.8% 40 -37.5%
Central District 9 43.2% 52 -10.0%
Downtown 60 -21.5% 52 15.4%
Fremont 8 27.3% 7 14.3%
Queen Anne 18 -31.3% 32 -43.8%
South Lake Union 8 -36.4% 1 700%
West Seattle 15 -42.7% 11 36.4%

 
 
Median Prices Decrease 2.7% to $287,000

Not only did sales decrease in June but the median price of condos did as well.

June ’10 Mo/Mo Change June ’09 Yr/Yr Change $/Sq. Ft.
Ballard $302,475 4.3% $310,975 -2.7% $362
Belltown $430,000 7.5% $360,000 19.4% $453
Capitol Hill $294,000 -2.6% $274,000 7.3% $402
Central District $285,000 -2.9% $252,600 12.8% $396
Downtown $347,000 -8.7% $371,058 -6.5% $432
Fremont $241,000 -7.2% $242,500 -0.6% $299
Queen Anne $272,500 9.0% $281,250 -3.1% $39
South Lake Union $289,750 -0.7% $350,000 -17.2% $327
West Seattle $259,000 -24.9% $248,000 4.4% $279

 
 
For more color on sales in June check out our weekly series of recent sale posts.

What Does the Future Hold?

I suspect we’ll see sales activity be flat to slightly down in July, and inventory will increase as more people list before August which is when the real estate community typically heads out on vacation.

What Do You Think?

Have you been shopping for a condo recently? What do you think of what’s available for sale? Made any offers? How did those go?

Redfin has a spreadsheet available if you want to dig into the data for for a neighborhood or city not included here (or for single-family home data.)

Disclaimer: I work at Redfin and run the marketing team. This is one of the projects I work on.

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  • es

    Love this kind of post from Urbnlivin. Don't get me wrong, I love the condo listings, pictures etc. as they give a lot of insight into the condo market, not to mention eye candy. But it's nice to see the analytical side of the market posted, and I would love to see more posted, maybe urbnlivin taking a more critical look at residential development in Seattle.

  • http://twitter.com/mattgoyer mattgoyer

    Glad you like it :). I'd write more but they take forever to write! If anyone wants to guest write analytical posts I'd be happy to pay for them.

  • Robert

    I've been following the market for nearly a year while looking for a condo and I have certainly gotten a sense of the trends in the market. I made an offer on a place in Belltown on April 27th, in an attempt to catch the tax credit if it was accepted (knowing full well that I wouldn't be upset if it wasn't), at 10% below asking price. I would have felt uncomfortable making it that high if the tax credit wasn't there. They came down a little (4%), but I was not budging and it fell through. Since, they have come down 3% in asking price, but have been on the market the whole time seemingly without much interest. I knew full well that one of two things would happen after April 30th:

    1) The tax credit expires and the government renews it, foreclosures continue to increase, but not drastically and the downward price pressure is undramatic, buyer demand stagnating, but not plummeting.
    OR
    2) The tax credit expires, the government does not renew it, foreclosures spike in June/July and stay high through the summer as buyer demand dries up. Banks, wanting to unload the properties as quickly as possible offer them up at significant discount, putting continued downward pressure on the market prices.

    Since then I have seen that 2) seems to be the reality after all and I have taken a wait and see approach from the latter part of May through July. Some good deals have come up, but nothing I felt the need to jump on for one reason or another. I know that even if the market starts to trend up (which I don't see happening for at least a year without outside assistance), there will certainly still be a few excellent deals to be had, so I have no problem playing the waiting game for the home that is just right for me.

  • Jbowers

    this entries title gave me a couple nightmares when i got the email around 12:30.