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Bubble Talk at the Bar: $40k in 3 Years

By Matt Goyer November 29, 2012

Overheard at the bar at Barrio tonight from a visitor to Seattle, “I’m in town because I just closed on a condo at the Braeburn. I’m going to make $40,000 in three years!”

No joke.

Our guess is that he bought Unit W201 for $164k. It closed yesterday and is a 438 square foot studio.

What do you think? $40k in 3 years?

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12 responses to “Bubble Talk at the Bar: $40k in 3 Years”

ninaf says:

November 29, 2012 at 10:06 pm

My math isn’t as good as his math.
Collin says:

November 30, 2012 at 11:21 am

Ha, ha, ha!
Benjamin Lukoff says:

November 30, 2012 at 11:47 am

Good luck with that!
phil says:

November 30, 2012 at 2:39 pm

The person in question must have missed Bernard’s last post, about the Seattle Times coverage of the building boom for “apartments”. That is apartment buildings that would be easy to convert to condos.

When interest rates start to go up, expect it to put a damper in further increases in housing prices.
Amir says:

December 1, 2012 at 10:58 am

I don’t get it how does that warrant a “bubble talk” label, or “good luck with that,” or “ha ha ha”?? Is it not within the realm of possibility that he just meant 40k from renting it out? Or a mixture of rental income and value appreciation?
big_brother says:

December 1, 2012 at 12:31 pm

I’m not sure that listening in on strangers’ private conversations at restaurants and posting them along with their likely address is such a great way to generate content…
Guest says:

December 1, 2012 at 11:18 pm

This place, Barrio — does it serve alcohol? According to Wikipedia, some believe that the consumption alcohol may impair judgment.
jorge garcia says:

December 4, 2012 at 6:32 pm

Let’s see. $40K divided by 3 equals $13.3K per year, or about $1.1K per month appreciation. If he is renting out the property, then he would have to charge near $2K per month in rent for a studio. I don’t even think a combination of rent profit and appreciation will give him the $1K per month profit he is looking for, unless he finds oil in that studio apartment
jorge garcia says:

December 4, 2012 at 6:34 pm

A $1.1K profit per month on a studio apartment?! Really?! C’mon man. Let’s get real.
phil says:

December 5, 2012 at 1:27 pm

“How Fed Policy Distorts Home Prices”, with charts.

iaconoresearch.com/2012/12/05/how-fed-policy-distorts-home-prices/
Amir says:

December 6, 2012 at 11:52 am

It’s ridiculous to even argue about this based on just two sentences from a stranger and an educated guess on the unit. The point was that we don’t know all the details and are reading a lot into the statements, e.g. when some people say “make” X dollars they don’t even necessarily mean profit, they could just mean revenue … but even assuming you’re correct about all that … factoring a completely reasonable 4% average annual appreciation rate (historically it usually fluctuates between 3-5%) the total appreciation would come out to 20k (or maybe he just got a great deal in fact the Zestimate on Redfin’s page is already 20k over purchase price), and the remaining 20k can easily come from rental profit considering it’s a condo with garage parking in the liveliest part of town … no oil required.
snapshotist says:

May 22, 2016 at 11:05 am

It’s now 2016 – looks like this person could have walked away with a little more than $40k…

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