The Frenzy vs. The Freeze

The divide between single-family homes in hot neighborhoods and the condo market is wider than ever right now:

• The Red Hot: A single-family home in Maple Leaf pulled in an incredible 27 offers last week (and didn’t have a primary suite!). Meanwhile, this home in Wedgwood secured 9 offers just today.
• The Ice Cold: Meanwhile, condos are a completely different story; there are currently condos on the market for over a month without a single showing.

Our own active listings reflect this exact market split. We are seeing fast action on our homes and townhouses, but we’re struggling to get buyers into our condo listings.

• Denny Blaine Modern: Went pending in just 5 days.
• Fremont Townhome: Went pending in just 6 days over list!
• Belltown Condo: Our seller just improved the price to $450K. That is $450K for a two-bedroom view condo with parking!

Rate Watch: 6.75% and Climbing

Mortgage rates took another jump today, hitting 6.75% for a top-tier 30-year fixed loan. Rates have now moved 75 basis points since the beginning of the war, marking the highest borrowing costs we’ve seen since last July. Keep in mind that a lender told us today she’s quoting 6.1% for well-qualified borrowers.

What’s Next? The June Forecast

Last week brought what will likely be the busiest week of the entire year for new listings. Interestingly, even though we are seeing more overall inventory this year compared to last, our peak week this year wasn't quite as flooded as last year's busiest week.

Here is what we expect moving into the summer months:

• The Layoff Wildcard (and the Moving Truck Factor): We can't ignore the local economic headlines. With layoffs hitting Starbucks earlier in the week and Meta tomorrow, job security, not housing, is top of mind for many. Beyond people simply hitting the pause button on buying, we anticipate these shakeups will inevitably cause some impacted workers to relocate away from the Seattle area entirely, which will result in even more homes for sale.
• The Memorial Day Pause: Expect this week to be very quiet for new inventory. Most sellers hold off on listing right before a long holiday weekend.
• The June Rush: Get ready for a major wave of activity post-Memorial Day. The four weeks leading up to July 4th will be highly active, though likely not quite as intense as May.
• The Inventory Peak: Looking at the current pace of homes going pending relative to new listings, we expect the total number of homes for sale to steadily grow and hit its peak in September (a shift from last year, when inventory peaked early in July).

What does this mean for you?

• If you are a Seller: Strategy, presentation, and hyper-local pricing are everything. Listing a single-family home requires a completely different playbook than listing a condo right now.
• If you are a Buyer: Don't let the headlines scare you. While some single-family homes are very competitive, not all are, and the condo market and upcoming summer inventory spikes are giving buyers an advantage we haven’t seen in a long time.

🏠 Listings that caught our eye last week

• Most expensive pending: Kirkland waterfront at $9.3M
• Highest % over asking sale: Ballard craftsman for 22% over
• Most expensive sale: Enatai modern $9.75M
• Least expensive sale: U-District condo for $140K
• Most popular Seattle listing on Redfin: Broadview midcentury modern for $850K

📰 Must-read real estate news

• Seattle ranked fourth among large cities for growth last year (Seattle Times)
• Ackerley family relists San Juan Island estate for less than half the original price (PSBJ)
• Starbucks lays off hundreds at Seattle HQ (Seattle Times)
• The future of the once promised light rail stations is in doubt (Seattle Times)
• How Seattle’s recent growth stacks up to the 2010 boom years (Seattle Times)

Busiest Week of the Year!

Seattle: 424 new listings last week, up 10.4% w-o-w
Eastside: 358 new listings last week, up 20.1% w-o-w

But not the busiest week for buyers

Seattle: 210 pending last week, down 7.5% w-o-w
Eastside: 161 pending last week, up 14.2 % w-o-w

🔥 The hottest new listings

$14M Mercer Island modern waterfront

$3.9M Finn Hill midcentury modern by Paul Hayden

$3.8M Madison Park contemporary

$2.6M Innis Arden midcentury modern by Ralph Anderson

$1.3M Redmond NW contemporary

$1.2M Innis Arden midcentury modern

Check out last week’s market update, 8-9 Months of Supply vs. $4,000/sq ft: The Great Condo Divide

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