Looks like the developers of the Alex in Belltown don’t share the opinions of some of the folks in the Equinox thread.
From their marketing team:
Great news all! Our Alex project will be going condominium!! In looking at the long-term condominium absorption for the downtown area, our builder, his bank, and the appraisers are all in agreement that this project will make for a successful condominium.
At present, the interior framing is well under way on the lower levels, the brick exterior is starting to take shape, and our estimated completion date is approximately March 1st, 2009. We are considering commencing the selling of the condominiums in early to mid January, which is just around the corner. We have drawn up some preliminary pricing based on the past quarter’s condo market performance, and we will continue to make pricing adjustments as needed to mirror the market goings-on. Thus, the final prices are not yet available. Thank you for your patience on this front. Now that we know our direction, the Alex marketing materials are being produced and we will soon have something tangible for you to look at.
Here’s a photo from November 1st of the construction:
Bonus link: Condo Market Deterioration Shows Signs of Slowing, Says NAR.
Popularity: 15% [?]
44 responses so far ↓
1 The Verdict on Alex is Out! « Seattle Condo Blog | Active Condos for Sale | Downtown Market Trends // Nov 19, 2008 at 1:55 pm
[…] And the verdict…. […]
2 Matthew // Nov 19, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Apparently they didn’t get the news that JPM is laying off nearly all the downtown WaMu employees…
3 uptown // Nov 19, 2008 at 7:52 pm
It really comes down to price. This a well built, boutique project with only 34 units. If they aren’t in hurry to sell, they should be fine.
The biggest downside for the location was the elevated Viaduct being so close, but that will either become a surface street or below grade, as part of the Viaduct replacement.
4 Matthew // Nov 19, 2008 at 7:59 pm
Obviously anything will sell if the price is right… But I have a feeling that the break even point is not going to agree with demand in this market.
We’ll see.
5 Pat // Nov 19, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Reckless decision making on the part of the developer and lender. I wonder if the boys over there developing fell asleep in their econ 101 class…demand drives price, guys…and theres no demand…there is NO WAY that they can sell those things competitive enough and make the pro forma pencil. If they sell, its going to be very cheap, and if they are cheap, the construction quality will be sacrificed. Let this be a warning…what fools. And we ae supposed to be worried for the financials? Lending on jobs like this is exactly why they got their clock cleaned, just like all the greedy developers.
6 just another dirty renter // Nov 20, 2008 at 9:31 am
wow…
all i have to say is good luck guys.
7 Dan C // Nov 20, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Can we just loop the song “Another one bites the dust” through this thread?
It is crazy how nice of a place I will be able to buy for $200,000 in three years. I am pretty excited. I might be able to get an Escala penthouse!
8 Ryan // Nov 20, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Forget Escala, that’ll stall out and fall flat on its face. Im shootin for the Four Seasons penthouse! Those are alomst complete and they will be cutting prices on those for 4 years!
…dun dun dun…another one bites the dust!
9 Dan C // Nov 20, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Ryan, silly me, you are correct.
Four Seasons would be sweet, those places are cool, plus I could head right outside to the Lusty Lady when I am done with my caviar.
10 Ryan // Nov 20, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Dan C,
Now you got it…ill see you at the four seasons in four years…
11 BlueSkyGuy // Nov 20, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Wow, all of a sudden URBNLIVN looks more like when BitterRenter.com or SeattleBubble - who opened the floodgates to the doom and gloomers? I remember the market crash of 1987, many people were saying the same thing back then and I know a lot of whiners that never did buy - they are still renting and driving beater cars, and blaming their woes on the system and everyone but themselves. Those of us that understand market cycles know that the best time to buy is when fear is in the streets, and the best time to sell is when greed rules the day. I sold all my real estate in the last couple of years and now I am starting to buy properties with extraordinary locations / views “on sale”. Those properties are almost impossible to come by when the market it hot, but they are there for the asking when the sheeple and the lemmings are all running for the cliff. Many come with built in equity as a bonus thanks to those who panic. The market will recover and soon, the smart money will not be on the sidelines — it will be looking for bargains and finding ways to cover debt service and leverage tax write offs in anticipation of the next cycle, which will be a good one when the capital, bond and stock markets finally stabilize - which they will. The big fortunes are made in times like these, boyz and girlz, but it takes guts and fortitude - it is not a game for those who allow fear and panic to rule.
12 jo // Nov 20, 2008 at 6:16 pm
BlueSkyGuy - you’re my hero
Anyone with a brain realizes this is probably a once in a lifetime chance to make some cash over the next year or two. Sadly, many readers of this site are hitting F5 the entire day waiting to post their mindless “hey give me attention” dribble.
If I only had a bunch of cash lying around right now :(
13 Ryan // Nov 20, 2008 at 6:40 pm
Blueskyguy and jo…
yes, everything has ups and downs, and crashes recover, but this one is something no one has seen before…this is just the leading edge of the skid. everything is going much much lower…overall you are right, but this time it is going to take decades to recover. since we havent hit the bottom or anywhere close to it yet, bargain hunters and buyers still have 4-5 quarters before they see the bottom…maybe longer. after this point, growth will be minimal because of how beat up everyone has gotten financially. people will still be hesitant for years. think of the equity this country has lost so far, and we arent even close to the bottom of everything. housing prices wont go up hard for a long long time. just stay patient and wait a few years, dont think this is some typical housing cycle. its much worse.
14 Matt // Nov 20, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Yeah, we’ve been invaded by the Bubblers who don’t seem to care about condos at all but do care that the sky is falling. But even though they claim the sky is falling people are still buying and selling condos in downtown Seattle.
My favorite quote is this recent one from Warren Buffett: A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.
15 Matt // Nov 20, 2008 at 7:39 pm
Speaking of the Four Seasons, UrbanAsh has one for rent. Only $15k/mn.
16 Matthew // Nov 20, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Warren Buffet has never seen a market like today. He made most his money by investing in the 1970’s, which are not comparable to today.
The 87 crash is not even remotely comparable to today’s market.
The only thing that is remotely accurate in comparison is 1929, or possibly 1873.
It’s not doom and gloom, its reality. I have plenty of cash sitting on the sidelines and want to buy a condo, but the prices around here are going to be coming way down. I’ll pick out a development I like and wait, until then I’m comfortable renting my condo.
17 Matthew // Nov 20, 2008 at 9:02 pm
BTW, Berkshire Hath. is getting absolutely destroyed right now (down 44% YTD).
18 Matthew // Nov 20, 2008 at 9:08 pm
The biggest problem right now is that people are comparing this market to what they have experienced in their lifetimes.
The problem with that is that most people that were alive during the last great crisis have been taking a long dirt nap for sometime now. I recommend watching the PBS video regarding the “Crash of 1929″, with interviews of people that were alive during that time frame. The similarities between then and now are frightening.
But hey, history is going to repeat itself if we don’t learn from it. But that’s just some “mindless drivel” or “dribble” as jo would say.
19 The MD // Nov 20, 2008 at 9:15 pm
BlueSkyGuy (and Jo), if you TRULY believe as you say, “the best time to buy is when there is fear in the streats,” then why are you pouring so much energy and time into making everyone at ease about the market as if the market is doing just fine? Wouldn’t you want to keep people in fear so YOU can go make a killing? You’re such a marketer. It seems to any REASONABLE person that you are simply another typical realtor that really doesn’t understand this market. This isn’t the same thing as the market crash of 1987. This is quite different as this is a GLOBAL slow down in cash flow and real estate values. EVERYTHING is going down (like a freakin’ fire sale), and its GOING TO STAY THERE for quite some time.
20 BlueSkyGuy // Nov 21, 2008 at 12:28 am
MD - It is almost humorous how you and a few other doom and gloomers pigeon-hole anyone that presents an alternate point of view as a “typical realtor” or a “markter”. I am neither, but I do admit to investing in markets and making a good living in good and bad markets. Why are YOU pouring so much energy into making everyone believe that this is the end of the world as we know it? There is such a thing as a self-fulfulling prophesy for those like yourself that prognisticate such doom and gloom. The markets will stabilze, and in fact it will not surprise me to see a significant rally in the stock market in January, which will predict the recovery of the economy within the year. You do raise some good points however, this is the wackiest correction that any of us have seen, but we all need to take a breath and stay positive. The great thing about this country is that we are innovative, creative, flexible and IF we put our heads together we can get it all back on track. If we pull the covers over our heads and whine about it or run to the cliff with the rest of the lemmings it will be a long way to the cold dark water. I vote for the former. Peace, my brother.
21 The MD // Nov 21, 2008 at 7:58 am
OOPS!!!!!! I accidentally posted a comment as “BlueSkyGuy.” Sorry to BlueSkyGuy and the readers.. Here was my posting… B.S. Guy, I’ve been on both sides of this market as owner/investor and having sold everything early to mid time last year, I am sitting pretty. I am a REALIST. I know when times are good, and I enjoy them (up until about August/September 2007), but I know when times aren’t so good, and I speak to that as well. I do feel its important for people to know they shouldn’t be buying right now or anytime in the immediate future as this market is indeed STILL DROPPING (so why would you tell someone to buy?) and it will continue to drop well into 2009. That’s a fact.
Next, you say we are going to see a “significant rally” in the market come this January. Once fourth-quarter earnings reports are released in first quarter of next year, its going to get even uglier. Retailers rely on fourth quarter for HALF of all profits they earn. If you haven’t heard, they’re hurting pretty bad right now as consumer spending is way down. Once the notion is confirmed by first quarter of next year, the markets are going to get even more spooked. Rallying in the stock market will not come until MID 2009 at the earliest, and that is only with the information given today.
22 Matthew // Nov 21, 2008 at 8:07 am
Rebound by January??? You honestly believe that the market will rally based on 4th quarter results?
We’ll know soon enough, and I’ll hold you to that. However you’ll probably have disappeared from here like every other bottom caller that’s been wrong so far.
23 Matt // Nov 21, 2008 at 9:37 am
I deleted the stray comment…
24 BlueSkyGuy // Nov 21, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Sorry, meant to say - watch for a significant rally in the STOCK market in January that will give some clue as to where the overall economy will be heading later in the year [i.e. the stock market is a leading indicator] At yesterday’s ULI breakfast it was suggested that the REITS will be the leading indicator for a recovery in the housing market. To Matthew -do I believe that the stock market will rebound based on Q4 results? No, I believe that the market is testing support and that it will oversell before rebounding. I could be wrong, but I do know that we are in for more pain in advance of any rally [we are not at the bottom yet, we need a well defined W on the stock chart and then we will see if the markets can break resistance … but the darkest hour is always before the dawn :). Hang in there people, it will get better!
25 Matthew // Nov 21, 2008 at 2:30 pm
BlueSky,
Repeat after me, L-shaped recovery.
26 ADS // Nov 21, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Jo, why would anyone want to buy right now? I understand the logic of buy when everyone’s selling but this time around people aren’t sure if they’ll even be employed next year.
27 The MD // Nov 21, 2008 at 5:13 pm
The term, “Bubbler,” cracks me up. Ummmm last time I checked, WE ARE IN A BUBBLE. It doesn’t necessarily make one a “bubbler” because he or she realizes the market has peaked, and now the market is headed into unknown territory with values plummeting across the board. Speaking to that doesn’t make one a “dooms-dayer,” it makes one in tune with what’s really going on out there.
28 jo // Nov 21, 2008 at 5:17 pm
My favorite part of The MD’s posts is his usage of caps.
DO YOU UNDERSTAND THE WORDS COMING OUT OF MY MOUTH?
29 The MD // Nov 21, 2008 at 5:25 pm
My favorite part of jo’s posts is the lack of any reason or cognitive thought behind the claims jo makes. ITS GREAT FOR A LAUGH! :-)
30 The MD // Nov 21, 2008 at 5:26 pm
And, jo, I honestly cannot understand anything you have to say because it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
31 The MD // Nov 21, 2008 at 5:28 pm
jo, there’s a very simple reason you don’t have a lot of cash lying around. Its because you clearly do not understand economics 101 and fundamentals of money management.
32 uptown // Nov 21, 2008 at 5:58 pm
This is why I stopped hanging out at the bubble sites, they’ve completely lost it.
33 Matthew // Nov 21, 2008 at 7:42 pm
Predicting a massive banking crisis, massive housing deflation, and an overall crash in the equity markets long before it actually happens, yeah we’ve completely lost it!
34 Affluent Bitter Renter // Nov 22, 2008 at 8:47 am
“This is why I stopped hanging out at the bubble sites, they’ve completely lost it.”
Yeah, spouting crazy-talk like a 40% decline in RE prices in California - oh wait, that actually happened.
The bubbilists have the misfortune of having been generally right - unlike the RE shills, who have been peddling absolutely disastrous financial advice until quite recently.
Now the local shills, following the example of their peers elsewhere, are calling a bottom to RE prices every month. Eventually, they will be right, but RE cycles take a looong time to unwind, and it’s not like prices immediately shoot up again when the bottom is reached.
35 uptown // Nov 22, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Sorry folks, I predicted the same drop. Now you are just stating the obvious, not predicting the future.
36 Affluent Bitter Renter // Nov 22, 2008 at 6:34 pm
“Sorry folks, I predicted the same drop. Now you are just stating the obvious, not predicting the future.”
Uh, no. There are plenty of Seattle RE people willing to call a bottom now - BlueSkyGuy up above in the comments, for example, who states:
“The market will recover and soon, the smart money will not be on the sidelines”.
I don’t agree - there are still significant differences of opinion on what the future will hold.
37 The MD // Nov 22, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Affluent Bitter Renter is absolutely correct. Period.
38 BlueSkyGuy // Nov 23, 2008 at 4:58 pm
BSGuy did not say the market would recover soon … I said that “the market will recover, and soon, the smart money will not be on the sidelines”. Smart money is always one step ahead, it does not wait for the sheeple and lemmings to figure out what or when to invest. Smart money does not look for the absolute bottom or the absolute top, it looks for good entry points for buys and sells, and it is often contrarian. Even a broken clock is right once a day - predicting a market crash was easy once the dominoes started to fall. If you self-appointed geniuses are so adept at predicting the markets every move, you should quit your day jobs and become gurus - you could make billions investing based on your perfect market timing and clairvoyance :). Business cycles come and go, you are right about the fact that this one is a deep one. But markets are all about supply and demand, fear and greed, confidence or lack thereof. My semi educated instinctual guess is that we will start to see a recovery in mid 2009, but unlike some other posters here, I do possess the arrogance to think that I can predict the future. I am pretty damn sure that is not 1929, this will not be another great depression, and its not the end of the world … in fact, I am looking forward to the next up cycle, it will be a good one, but only for those that are willing to take risks. If not, I hope that people like AffluentBitterRenter keep on renting from investors like me, I love the fact that you renters are willing to pay my debt service - it’s one of the great paths to wealth known to man!
39 Affluent Bitter Renter // Nov 23, 2008 at 5:59 pm
“I hope that people like AffluentBitterRenter keep on renting from investors like me, I love the fact that you renters are willing to pay my debt service - it’s one of the great paths to wealth known to man!”
If I’m renting a house you’ve bought recently, I am paying only a fraction of the full debt service on your house, but nice try.
I’m sure that the fact that real estate investing is one of the “great paths to wealth known to man” is a great comfort to the millions of people who have been ruined financially by investing in real estate in the current bubble.
40 The MD // Nov 23, 2008 at 10:28 pm
B.S.Guy, you said you predicted the markets will rally in January, 2009. Stop trying to back pedal. The markets will certainly NOT rally in January of’ 09, and it clearly demonstrates your lack of understanding with quarterly earnings reports and how they affect the future (ie. next quarter’s market confidence). Of COURSE the market will come back… it ALWAYS does. But in what amount of time may I ask? This time around is quite different than lulls and slumps of the past. You’re seemingly implying the market is going to just start bouncing back in mid ‘09. Well, slightly AFTER mid ‘-09 is when we’re going to see the bottom. Then, it will remain level for a couple of years with no significant gain in real estate values (I predict completely level). Then, you’re going to see slight YOY gains for about 3 years, then more healthy gains. BIG DEAL! You’re implying people should be out buying right now. Well, that would only go for STUPID people that want to buy only 13 months after the market peaked and watched their newly-purchased residence devalue another 20% before the bottom is here. Get real, and stop B.S.ing everyone into supplementing YOUR bad buying/fiscal decisions because you purchased at peak.
41 BlueSkyGuy // Nov 24, 2008 at 1:23 am
Good point, ABR, I did not intend to be callous. Problem is that a lot of us [myself included] have had a tendency to try and live beyond our means in the last decade of excess. We all need to take responsiblity for our own fiscal decisions and not blame mortgage lenders for allowing us to buy things that we cannot afford, or look to the government to bail us out, or to blame the system for our own stupidity or greed. As for the future prospects for real estate, they have never been better. Now that the government is printing money, inflation will be the friend of anyone that can find a way to own good dirt that has income to cover a good portion of debt. Its not about timing the market … its about TIME IN THE MARKET - and we are about to witness the best entry point of the last 20 years.
42 Matthew // Nov 24, 2008 at 10:41 pm
BSG,
I’ve been mostly short in this market the last 12 months. Sold my SKF last Thursday and am still holding some lotto puts on the SPX. I don’t have the capital to become a billionaire and I work a day job that I wouldn’t trade in a million years to be in the financial world, but I’ve made enough money to put a substantial amount of cash down on a place once housing finds a bottom.
If you think the market is going to rally, good luck. Many people with “smart money” were decimated in 1929 chasing false market bottoms.
43 BlueSkyGuy // Nov 25, 2008 at 12:23 am
Yes, I do think the market will rally in January but there is a huge difference between a RALLY and a RECOVERY. I make money off of volatility and it doesnt really matter if the market is going up or down as long as it moves. A straddle option play is perfect for the kind of market we are in now because you can make money on both sides of the trade. If you are an investor it is a very bad idea to try and chase bottoms or tops but the beauty of the stock market is that you can make money whether it goes up or down… in real estate, it is rare to see values go down and unfortunately there is no way to make money when they do - other than holding for an extended period of time or creating value by boosting yield. Good for you making some dough for a down payment on some good real estate, just dont wait too long…the best deals will be found before the bottom is apparant - by then the distressed sellers will be washed out and the buyers will start to come back in play … less product, more buyers, less motivation to sell cheap. fewer deals, fewer good locations.
44 Matthew // Nov 26, 2008 at 4:33 am
BSG,
One final thing, I was going to let your “the government printing money” comment slide, but I think it is important to understand that the government is doing nothing of the sort. There are no more 1,5,10,20,100 dollar bills in circulation after the credit crisis than there were previously. The mainstream media really needs to find a different term than “printing”.
There is a huge difference between “lending” and physical “printing” of money. The Fed is taking collateral (albeit worthless collateral) in exchange for credit. These are called swaps, and are accessed through various lending facilities that the Fed has established. The money that is being lent to the banks is not being used as capital, and therefore is not inflationary. The money is merely being used to plug massive holes on the bank’s balance sheets.
So far the credit facilities are akin to someone trying to plug a hole in the Hoover dam with their thumb. The leaks in the dam are deflation, which is gripping the economy, not inflation.
That is why you see the dollar showing remarkable strength right now, and most commodities are crashing.
Should the Treasury actually physically start printing more USD, you would know instantly, as the bond market and US dollar would both most likely fall of a cliff.
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